The Bigger Winner in the Ukraine War: The CIA and U.S. Intel Community? (2023)

One of the “winners” so far in the war in Ukraine has been the U.S. Intelligence Community. Starting in the Fall, the U.S. intelligence agencies accurately predicted the plans and intentions of the Russian President Vladimir Putin with regard to Ukraine.

There were several times before the Russian forces invaded on February 24 in which the U.S. Intelligence Community publicly shared intelligence on the Russian plans.

Putin’s War & U.S. Intelligence

“The last chapter in Putin’s war has yet to be written, as he grinds away in Ukraine. I have no doubt about the cruel pain and damage that Putin can continue to inflict on Ukraine, or the raw brutality with which Russian force is being applied,”CIA Director Joe Burnssaid during an event at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

“Bybeing open with some of our secrets, we made it harder for Putin to obscure the truth of his unprovoked and vicious aggression,” Burns said, referring to the intelligence community’s strategy to declassify intelligence before the war.

As the Russian military is ready to pounce in eastern Ukraine and capture the Donbas, the U.S. has increased intelligence sharing with the Ukrainian military and security services.

“We are intensely sharing timely intelligence with the Ukrainians to help them defend themselves throughout their country, including in areas held by Russia before the 2022 invasion,” a U.S. intelligence official told CBS News.

Now the U.S. will provide Ukraine with targeting data for Russian targets in the Donbas too, thereby making it easier for the Ukrainian military to defend against the imminent Russian offensive there.

“When he launched his war seven weeks ago, Putin was proven wrong on each of those counts. But Ukrainian will is unbroken, and Putin’s Russia has inflicted massive material and reputational damage on itself,” the CIA director added.

The CIA director had a rare opportunity to witness the Russian decision making process in person when he visited Moscow in November. Then, the Kremlin was slowly building up hundreds of thousands of troops on Ukraine’s border, but whether it would use them to invade and topple the Ukrainian government was uncertain.

“While it did not yet seem that he had made an irreversible decision to invade Ukraine, Putin was defiantly leaning in that direction, apparently concerned that his window was closing for shaping Ukraine’s orientation,” Burns said.

A Wounded Animal Is The Most Dangerous

The CIA director said that Putin demonstrates every day that declining powers have the same potential for disruption as rising ones, like China.

For years now, the U.S. Intelligence Community has assessed that although Russia is on the decline as a big power, it still has the potential to cause trouble to the U.S. and the international rules-based system. The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is stark evidence of that malicious capability.

1945’s New Defense and National Security Columnist,Stavros Atlamazoglouis a seasoned defense journalistspecializing inspecial operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured inBusiness Insider,Sandboxx, andSOFREP.

In this article:CIA, NSA, NSC, Putin, Russia, Ukraine, War in Ukraine

The Bigger Winner in the Ukraine War: The CIA and U.S. Intel Community? (1)

Written ByStavros Atlamazoglou

1945’s Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist with specialized expertise in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

(Video) Hear ex-CIA director's prediction about who will win in Ukraine

The Bigger Winner in the Ukraine War: The CIA and U.S. Intel Community? (2)

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. The Bigger Winner in the Ukraine War: The CIA and U.S. Intel Community? (3)

    Illurion

    April 15, 2022 at 3:50 pm

    If they know so much, how come they haven’t provided even ONE picture of damaged Moskva ?

    Or info on how many of the crew died ?

    All we know at the moment is that the Ukrainians announced today that they learned from intercepted Russian communications that the Captain of the Moskva died and went down with the ship.

    Reply

  2. The Bigger Winner in the Ukraine War: The CIA and U.S. Intel Community? (4)

    Alex

    April 15, 2022 at 4:34 pm

    Did anyone doubt that in Ukraine there is a war between Russia and the United States? Author, take care of yourself, you blurted out too much, it seems.

    (Video) How Ukraine war 'unsettles' China - CIA chief | FT

    Reply

  3. The Bigger Winner in the Ukraine War: The CIA and U.S. Intel Community? (5)

    Illurion

    April 16, 2022 at 10:27 am

    Dream on Alex:

    Two Ukrainian missiles did sink the Moskva.

    Appears the Moskva was never towed anywhere, but, instead, sank in minutes right where it was attacked.

    There were no survivors.

    All crew of 510 died.

    It appears there were two nuclear warheads on board the Moskva, and those two warheads are now on the floor of the Black Sea in the same location that the Moskva was hit.

    Appears Russia made up the “towed” story to try to hide the location of the warheads from foreign powers by trying to confuse them as to exactly where the wreck of the Moskva lies.

    Reply

  4. The Bigger Winner in the Ukraine War: The CIA and U.S. Intel Community? (6)

    Alex

    April 16, 2022 at 8:14 pm

    (Video) CIA Veteran: Putin's Mistakes In Ukraine Could Help U.S. Intel Agencies

    I’m glad that Bandera’s Nazi confessed – he’s just dreaming everything. Let you also dream about the capture of Moscow and Ukraine within the borders of 1991. Clown 🙂

    Reply

  5. The Bigger Winner in the Ukraine War: The CIA and U.S. Intel Community? (7)

    CK

    April 18, 2022 at 2:25 pm

    Alex, seriously, if you can’t even read English properly, can we ask you go back to your Russian farm forums? Or make yourself productive and go serve your glorious masters on the front!

    Reply

  6. The Bigger Winner in the Ukraine War: The CIA and U.S. Intel Community? (9)

    D

    April 27, 2022 at 10:56 am

    It’ѕ going to ƅe finish of mine day, except before finish I
    am reading this wonderful article to increaѕe my experience.

    Reply

    (Video) CIA chief: Russia will pay "a heavy price" for Ukraine invasion
  7. The Bigger Winner in the Ukraine War: The CIA and U.S. Intel Community? (10)

    Alex

    April 29, 2022 at 9:43 am

    If someone wants to know the truth about the civil war in the Donbass, about all the atrocities of the Bandera clean-ups and why Russia was forced to intervene, then it is better to watch films by independent journalists. There are already many such journalists who fight for truth and freedom. For example, a documentary by the German journalist Wilhelm Domcke-Schulz.

    A documentary film about the war crimes of the Bandera Nazis during the period of Russia’s special military operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine is in production. It will be a real information bomb, where the war crimes of Bandera Nazis will be shown and proved.

    The documentary “Remember Odessa” tells how the Bandera Nazis burned Ukrainians alive and other heinous war crimes.

    The documentary “To Live and Die in Donbass” tries to fill this gaping information gap in the West. He looks into the tormented soul of the inhabitants of Donbass, who really want only one thing – to live self-determining according to their own rules and values. Not submitting to foreign forces and ideologies.

    In the east of Ukraine, in the Donbass, a war has been raging since the beginning of 2014. A civil war that claimed more than 15,000 lives over the years, including several hundred children. They had to die, because the national-fascist coup government in Kyiv, funded by the West, trained and militarily heavily armed, would not tolerate any resistance to their illegitimate rule, no matter the cost.

    Therefore, in April 2014, the putschists deployed the Ukrainian army, supported by dozens of right-wing extremist volunteer battalions, and have since bombed city centers, residential areas, schools, hospitals and infrastructure, killing civilians.

    This perennial crime has gone completely unnoticed by the Western public. Politicians and the media avoid this topic and reports about how the devil pours holy water. Because a public discussion about the crimes of the Ukrainian regime would reveal only one thing – with what mass murderers and terrorists the so-called “west of values” in Ukraine has a common language, if only to defend their goals and interests.

    Lend-lease is a commodity loan, and not cheap: for all the ammunition, equipment and food supplied by the United States, many future generations of Ukrainian citizens will pay. Zelensky is driving the country into a debt hole.

    Reply

    (Video) "The Russian Army and Putin are in Trouble", John Sweeney on the War in Ukraine

FAQs

Why did Russian tanks fail in Ukraine? ›

Russian ERAs

'The heavy attrition of Russian Main Battle Tanks in Ukraine is highly likely partially due to Russia's failure to fit and properly employ adequate Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA)…

How much is us helping Ukraine? ›

The U.S. government has responded to the Russian Federation's brutal war against Ukraine by delivering $8.5 billion in direct budget support to the Government of Ukraine to help maintain critical government services, such as paying salaries of first responders, meeting pension obligations, and maintaining hospitals.

Why does the US support the Ukraine? ›

The United States, our allies, and our partners worldwide are united in support of Ukraine in response to Russia's premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified war against Ukraine.

Is Ukraine a full-scale invasion? ›

Russia launches its full-scale invasion of Ukraine with strikes from land, air and sea. Troops enter the country from three points, including from Belarus to Ukraine's north, heading toward Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson.

How many tanks has Russia lost to Ukraine? ›

3,587 vehicles and fuel tanks. 2,216 tanks. 1,323 artillery pieces.

How many Russian tanks have been destroyed? ›

Kahl did not specify exactly how many tanks the Pentagon estimates Russia has lost, but according to open-source intelligence analysis by Oryx, at least 1,450 Russian tanks have been destroyed, captured, abandoned, or damaged over the course of the war, which would be roughly half the pre-invasion tank force.

What would happen if the US and Russia went to war? ›

Nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia would kill more than 5 billion people – just from starvation, study finds. The toll of nuclear war would be instantly catastrophic for those who are within the immediate path of the weapons. But a new study shows just how deadly the scope of such a war would be.

What weapons has the US sent to Ukraine? ›

The United States had about 100 excess systems as the Marine Corps converted its artillery units from cannon artillery to rocket and missile launchers as part of its Force Design 2030. Those have been sent to Ukraine along with a small number of additional howitzers that were squeezed out of overhead activities.

How much has NATO Given Ukraine? ›

More US aid

"We've provided Ukraine with nearly $7 billion in security assistance since I took office.

WHO has sent most aid to Ukraine? ›

The United States has provided the most military assistance to Ukraine, having provided $16.8B since February 2022. Many NATO allies, such as Germany and Sweden, have reversed past policies against providing offensive military aid in order to support Ukraine.

How much money has the US given Ukraine? ›

Since 2014, the United States has committed approximately $19 billion in security assistance to Ukraine more than $16.2 billion since the beginning of Russia's unprovoked and brutal invasion on February 24.

What does the US rely on from Ukraine? ›

In 2019, of the $1.3 billion in U.S. imports from Ukraine, the top commodity sectors were Base metals (59.0%), Agriculture products (12.0%), and Machinery and Mechanical Appliances (9.5%).

Does Ukraine have long-range anti ship missiles? ›

Ukraine Deploys Anti-Ship Harpoon Missiles to the Edge of Black Sea, MoD Says. Danish land-based Harpoon launcher in 2002. Ukrainian forces have deployed Harpoon anti-ship missiles to the Black Sea as a counter to Russian surface ships in the region, Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov said.

How many tanks does Russia have? ›

According to the Military Balance 2021, quoted in Kyiv Independent, Russia has over 10,000 battle tanks in storage, mainly T-72s and T-80s.

Has Ukraine got long-range artillery? ›

Ukraine has received eight advanced US-supplied HIMARS long-range artillery systems in recent weeks capable of striking Russian targets as far as 80 kilometers (50 miles) away.

How many Ukraine helicopters has Russia lost? ›

Russia has lost 52 of its own, higher-flying helicopters. “A five-meter-altitude flight makes it impossible for the enemy's anti-aircraft defense to shoot down our 'dragonflies,'” the Ukrainian defense ministry explained.

How many fighter jets has Russia lost Ukraine? ›

I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.

What is the cost of a Russian tank? ›

The Russian Army initially planned to acquire 2,300 T-14s between 2015 and 2020.
...
T-14 Armata
ManufacturerUralvagonzavod
Unit cost$3.7–$4.6 million
Produced2014–2021 (prototypes), 2021–present (serial version)
28 more rows

How many tanks does NATO have? ›

These tanks are only used in NATO by their respective countries. There are roughly 200 tanks in service for each tank type, making a total of 800, plus roughly 1500 Leopard 2's and roughly 2500 M1 Abrams. The majority are M1A2's and the rest M1A1's.

How many armored cars has Russia lost Ukraine? ›

According to the open-source database Oryx, Russia has lost 1,183 tanks and 1,304 infantry fighting vehicles since its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.

What happens to tank crew when hit? ›

Any penetrating hit in the turret or hull can set off the ammunition, with a result sometimes describes as Jack-in-the-box effect: the force of the blast from the ammo tears the tank apart from inside, often detaching the turret with such force that it is thrown clear. Such events are instantly fatal to the crew.

Who is stronger Russia or USA? ›

In short, Russia is ranked 2nd out of 140 in military strength while the US is ranked 1st. As per the army population, Russia has 142,320,790 soldiers while The US has 334,998,398 soldiers. The available manpower is 69,737,187 with Russia and 147,399,295 with the United States.

How many people will be killed in nuclear war? ›

A global all-out nuclear war between the United States and Russia with over four thousand 100-kiloton nuclear warheads would lead, at minimum, to 360 million quick deaths. * That's about 30 million people more than the entire US population.

What will happen if we have a nuclear war? ›

Besides the immediate destruction of cities by nuclear blasts, the potential aftermath of a nuclear war could involve firestorms, a nuclear winter, widespread radiation sickness from fallout, and/or the temporary (if not permanent) loss of much modern technology due to electromagnetic pulses.

Who has better weapons US or Russia? ›

According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Russia has a stockpile of around 4,477 weapons in its nuclear arsenal. In comparison, the U.S. has around 3,708 warheads.

Which country has the most powerful weapons in the world? ›

They are easily the most fearsome weapons on Earth, capable of producing more death, destruction, injury, and sickness than any other weapon.
...
Here are the 10 countries with the most nuclear weapons:
  • Russia - 6,257.
  • United States - 5,550.
  • China - 350.
  • France - 290.
  • United Kingdom - 225.
  • Pakistan - 165.
  • India - 156.
  • Israel - 90.

How much does a Javelin missile cost? ›

FGM-148 Javelin
ManufacturerRaytheon & Lockheed Martin
Unit costUS$216,717 (G-model missile only, FY2021) US$240,000 (missile only, export cost, FY2019) US$249,700 (Lightweight CLU only, FY2021)
Produced1996–present
No. built45,000 missiles (12,000 CLUs)
30 more rows

How strong is NATO? ›

The combined total of Nato military personnel currently exceeds 5.4 million – around four times as many as Russia, according to Statista. It has about five times as many aircraft, four times as many armoured vehicles and three times as many military ships.

How many forces does NATO have? ›

It represents a significant commitment by Allies and is a tangible reminder that an attack on one NATO Ally is an attack on all. NATO's forward presence comprises eight multinational battlegroups, provided by framework nations and other contributing Allies on a voluntary, fully sustainable and rotational basis.

How many NATO troops are supporting Ukraine? ›

Over 40,000 troops, along with significant air and naval assets, are now under direct NATO command in the eastern part of the Alliance, supported by hundreds of thousands more from Allies' national deployments.

What weapons has Germany sent to Ukraine? ›

Germany, by comparison, has given Ukraine around $1.2 billion worth of military aid, including antiaircraft tanks, multiple launch rocket systems, long-range howitzers, and shoulder-mounted antiaircraft Stinger missiles.

Does Ukraine have nuclear weapons? ›

The warheads were removed from Ukraine by 1996 and disassembled in Russia. Despite Russia's subsequent and internationally disputed annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine reaffirmed its 1994 decision to accede to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear-weapon state.

Who is supplying military aid to Ukraine? ›

The US is the largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine, having committed $18.9 billion since the start of the Biden administration. $18.2 billion of that assistance has been provided since February 2022.

How much does Russia spend on military? ›

The think-tank estimates the Kremlin boosted expenditure on the military by 2.9% in 2021 to $65.9 billion, the third straight year of growth following declines between 2016 and 2019.

How many countries are helping Ukraine? ›

"I'm especially pleased that defense leaders from some 50 countries came together here today," Austin said. "It's a testament to the on-the-ground impact of this contact group that it continues to grow." Austin announced that President Joe Biden had approved a $1 billion security assistance package for Ukraine.

How many Himars does Ukraine have? ›

The Pentagon announced this month it would soon be delivering four more HIMARS to Ukraine, bringing the total number sent to 20.

Does the US use its own oil? ›

The U.S does indeed produce enough oil to meet its own needs. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2020 America produced 18.4 million barrels of oil per day and consumed 18.12 million.

How much oil does the US get from Russia? ›

In 2021, imports from Russia accounted for 8% of all U.S. petroleum imports, which includes the 3% share of crude oil imports and the 20% share of petroleum product imports.

Where does the US get its oil? ›

The top five source countries of U.S. gross petroleum imports in 2021 were Canada, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Colombia. Note: Ranking in the table is based on gross imports by country of origin. Net import volumes in the table may not equal gross imports minus exports because of independent rounding of data.

Will the US send Harpoon missiles to Ukraine? ›

Danish land-based Harpoon launcher in 2002. The United States will be sending two vehicle-mounted anti-ship missile platforms to Ukraine as part of a new $1 billion military aid package to Kyiv.

What is the most powerful anti-ship missile? ›

The AGM-158C LRASM (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile) is a stealthy anti-ship cruise missile developed for the United States Air Force and United States Navy by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).
...
AGM-158C LRASM
Warhead1,000 lb (450 kg) blast-fragmentation penetrator
Maximum speedHigh-subsonic
14 more rows

How effective are Harpoon anti-ship missiles? ›

It is an all-weather, over-the-horizon, anti-ship missile system. It has a low-level, sea-skimming cruise trajectory with active radar guidance. The Harpoon missile is the world's most successful anti-ship missile and is in service with the armed forces of more than 30 countries, according to Boeing.

Are Russian tanks better than American? ›

Overall the new Russian tank is on par with the US Abrams tank. In some areas it is slightly superior than the Abrams, however it has got no cutting-edge superiority. The Abrams has technical superiority in terms of mobility and cross-country performance.

Who has the best military in the world? ›

The United States

With a budget of $738 billion and 1,388,000 men and women in the armed forces, it boasts an awe-inspiring 6,125 nuclear weapons, 11 aircraft carriers, 68 nuclear submarines, 3,761 military aircraft, 867 attack helicopters, 6,209 tanks, and 113 warships.

How many Russian artillery pieces has Ukraine destroyed? ›

In just over a hundred days of fighting, the Ukrainians have destroyed or captured at least 283 Russian heavy mortars, cannons and rocket-launchers.

How many artillery shells did US send to Ukraine? ›

The US has sent nearly one million rounds of 155mm ammo to Ukraine in recent months.

How many American howitzer gave Ukraine? ›

As part of a new security assistance package announce April 21, 2022, the U.S. will send 72 howitzers and 144,000 artillery rounds to Ukraine.

Why did the Russian tank fail? ›

Experts put this down to logistical failures, and incompetence by Russian troops. "You've seen pictures of Russian tanks being dragged off by Ukrainian farmers' tractors," says Prof O'Brien. "Some of those tanks were abandoned because they ran out of fuel. That's a logistical failure.

Has Russia lost tanks in Ukraine? ›

Russia has likely lost half its tanks, used up most of its precision-guided weapons and suffered tens of thousands of casualties so far in its war against Ukraine, the Pentagon's top policy official said Tuesday.

Are Russian tanks in Ukraine any good? ›

Other criticism has centered on Russian tank flaws; when a Russian tank is hit, the ammunition – located near the gun system and stored around an automatic loader – “cooks off,” blowing the turret with the gun into the air. Crew survival on Russian tanks after they are hit in Ukraine is poor.

What percentage of Russian tanks have been destroyed in Ukraine? ›

5 the Russian army lost 123 tanks or, over that week, some 5 percent of the more than 2,400 Russian tanks written off by the Kremlin since start of the war, an Oct.

Has any Russian tanks been destroyed? ›

According to the Dutch warfare research group Oryx, Russia has lost 1,450 tanks since the war began, nearly 900 of which have been damaged or destroyed.

How many Ukraine planes has Russia lost? ›

The Russians Have Lost Nearly 300 Aircraft Over Ukraine—Mostly Drones.

What tank has never been destroyed? ›

Very few M1 tanks were hit by enemy fire and none were destroyed as a direct result of enemy fire, none of which resulted in any fatalities.

What is currently the best tank in the world? ›

Top 10 Best Tanks in the World 2022 | (Specs, Types, Countries)
  • 1- M1A2 Abrams – United States of America.
  • 2- T-14 Armata – Russia.
  • 3- Merkava Mk.4 – Israel.
  • 4- VT4 (MBT-3000) – China.
  • 5- Leclerc – France.
  • 6- Challenger 2 – United Kingdom.
  • 7- K2 Black Panther – South Korea.
  • 8- Leopard 2A7+ – Germany.

Is there 2 tanks in Ukraine? ›

The IS-2 tank first saw action in Ukraine in early 1944 and claimed to have destroyed more than forty Tigers and Elefants for the loss of only eight tanks. While the German heavy tanks could knock out the IS-2, they had no real answer to its 122 mm gun, which easily outgunned them.

Has Ukraine lost any tanks? ›

19 the Ukrainian army had lost just 320 tanks: 176 of them destroyed. The Ukrainians in the last six weeks have lost 71 tanks and captured 194. In other words, the counteroffensives have resulted in a net gain in armor holdings for Kyiv.

How many tanks and aircraft has Ukraine destroyed? ›

Ukraine Reports has Destroyed 2,000 Russian Tanks, 254 Aircraft & 47,000 Soldiers - Warrior Maven: Center for Military Modernization.

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